“It is too early to determine the severity of the predicted El Niño event. In fact, the last time Samoa was under an El Niño was in 2009/2010, where a “weak El Niño” in the Pacific caused water rationing in vulnerable drier areas of Samoa”
An El Niño is likely to develop in 2014, the Samoa Meteorology Division (SMD) has warned. Working from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), they have been closely monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific that could lead to possible development of an El Niño this year. This monitoring work is part of Samoa’s Climate Early Warning System (CLEWS).
“Advanced climate science available through CLEWS allows us to alert industries, government ministries and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” according to the Samoa Meteorology Division.
The majority of climate models analysed, 70 per cent, indicate that El Niño may develop during the southern hemisphere winter (June to August).
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. La Nina as its direct opposite.
The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Pacific remained to be El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral (not El Nino nor La Nina) during the past several months. The established threshold of SSTA for an El Niño phenomenon is 0.5°C or higher during a three-month period.
The Samoa Meteorology Division has already noted significant increase in the SSTA from 0.2 to 0.4 C from April 21 to April 28, 2014. Because of this development and as climate models predict that this condition may persist for the next nine months, Samoa Meteorology Division is foreseeing the onset of El Niño in June which may peak during the last quarter of 2014 and may last up to the first quarter of 2015.
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El Niño could affect the normal rainfall pattern in the country generally resulting in reduced rainfall. Day time temperatures tend to be hotter than normal over Samoa during El Niño. Different parts of the country may experience varying rainfall impacts (see figure below).
As a consequence of El Niño developing and further strengthening in the coming months, the following key sectors could be impacted includes; Water, Agriculture, Health, Energy (Hydropower), Tourism (Accomodation Facilities), Marine Ecosystems and Forestry.
It is too early to determine the severity of the predicted El Niño event. In fact, the last time Samoa was under an El Niño was in 2009/2010, where a “weak El Niño” in the Pacific caused water rationing in vulnerable drier areas of Samoa.
In 1997/1998; a “full fledged El Niño” led to a 7-month drought, adversely impacted water supplies, lower sea levels caused coral bleaching, affected agricultural farms and associated with massive forest fires in northwest region of Savaii, in Asau and Aopo that burned continuously for weeks.
Samoa Meteorology Division will continue to closely monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.
Samoa Meteorology Division has prepared seasonal rainfall outlook for coming three to six months for the different parts of the country. These monthly climate bulletins and future alerts can be accessed on our office website, www.mnre.gov.ws.
Concerned agencies and the general public are hereby advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of this phenomenon.
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