The tropical disturbance between Fiji and Vanuatu that is being monitored by the Samoa Meteorological Service (S.M.S.) is intensifying.
Principal Scientific Weather Officer, Luteru Tauvale, says there are several favourable environmental conditions necessary for cyclone formation.
“All these ingredients need to be present in the same area at the same time which help to develop the cyclone,” said Mr. Tauvale. On Monday, the A.C.E.O.,
Mulipola Ausetalia Titimaea, said that if a cyclone does develop it would be named Kofi. According to the Fijian Meteorological Service’s Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, while there are currently no existing tropical cyclones in the region, come tomorrow the potential for one to develop is high.
“A tropical disturbance is located near 15S 170E just east of Vanuatu at 3.00pm today (Monday),” the R.S.M.C. says.
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“The potential for tropical cyclone formation from this disturbance on Tuesday is Low, Wednesday is Moderate and on Thursday is High.”
According to a bulletin issued by the R.S.M.C. issued yesterday, the tropical disturbance was slow moving. It states its position is based on satellite imagery and peripheral surface reports.
The Sea Surface Temperature is around 30 degrees, the R.S.M.C. reports. “Convection has increased significantly in the past 12 hours,” the brief reads.
“Organisation has improved in the past 6 hours. The depression lies along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough.
“Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700hpa. “Global models have picked up the system and move it south-eastward with further intensification.
“Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.”
The R.S.M.C. reports no other significant tropical disturbance analysed or forecast in the area. While the potential for it to develop into a cyclone is still classified as Low to Moderate, the R.S.M.C. does predict that tomorrow the potential for a tropical cyclone formation from this disturbance is High.
Back here in Samoa, Mr. Tauvale said there needs to be a deep layer of warm sea surface temperature, unstable atmosphere and humid atmosphere, Coriolis force, low level vorticity and low wind-shear.
The Coriolis effect is a deflection of moving objects when they are viewed in a rotating reference frame.
In this instance the moving object is the cyclone and the rotating frame is the Earth, which is spinning. In regards to vorticity, the air is moving in such a way that you are more likely to get warm moist air moving up which helps build the system to create a cyclone and low wind sheer means the difference in wind speeds from one place to another is not much.
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